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Automation risk assessment

Software Developers: AI exposure and automation risk

Software Developers score 45% on the Eloundou et al. LLM exposure measure (moderate exposure). 16 of 19 rated tasks are exposed. BLS projects +10.2% employment, 2025–35.

Data compiled 2026-10-09 · BLS 2025–35 · O*NET 31.0 · AEI May 2026

LLM exposure (β)

45%

Moderate exposure

BLS projects +10.2% employment for software developers from 2025 to 2035.

Eloundou et al., Science 2024

Exposure scores

How much of this occupation's task list large language models could speed up

45%

Moderate exposure (β, human-rated)

Share of this occupation's tasks that annotators judged an LLM could do at least 50% faster at the same quality, counting tasks that need extra software at half weight.

Eloundou et al., Science 2024

87%

Same measure, rated by GPT-4

The study's model-rated β for comparison. Directly exposed tasks alone (α) score 5%; all exposed tasks (ζ) score 84%.

Eloundou et al., Science 2024

29%

Observed exposure in real AI usage

How much of the theoretically exposed work actually shows up as automated, work-related Claude usage.

Anthropic observed exposure (Mar 2026)

Exposed and unexposed tasks

Human ratings of 19 O*NET task statements, Eloundou et al., Science 2024

Of 19 rated tasks, 1 are directly exposed (E1), 15 are exposed once complementary software is built (E2), and 3 are not exposed (E0).

Exposed tasks

  • Analyze information to determine, recommend, and plan installation of a new system or modification of an existing system.

    E2 · Exposed with added software

  • Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.

    E2 · Exposed with added software

  • Confer with systems analysts, engineers, programmers and others to design systems and to obtain information on project limitations and capabilities, performance requirements and interfaces.

    E2 · Exposed with added software

  • Consult with customers or other departments on project status, proposals, or technical issues, such as software system design or maintenance.

    E1 · Directly exposed

  • Coordinate installation of software system.

    E2 · Exposed with added software

Tasks not exposed

  • Confer with data processing or project managers to obtain information on limitations or capabilities for data processing projects.

    E0 · Not exposed

  • Recommend purchase of equipment to control dust, temperature, or humidity in area of system installation.

    E0 · Not exposed

  • Supervise and assign work to programmers, designers, technologists, technicians, or other engineering or scientific personnel.

    E0 · Not exposed

Job outlook

U.S. projections, BLS Employment Projections 2025–35

+10.2%

Projected employment change, 2025–35

From 1.7 million jobs in 2025 to 1.9 million in 2035. All occupations: +3.5%.

BLS Employment Projections 2025–35

95,300

Openings per year, 2025–35 average

Includes openings from growth and from workers who retire or change occupations.

BLS Employment Projections 2025–35

$135,980

Median annual wage, 2025

BLS Employment Projections 2025–35

Bachelor's degree

Typical education for entry

BLS Employment Projections 2025–35

Primary profiles: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook · O*NET OnLine

How AI is used on this work

Claude.ai conversations on this occupation's tasks, Anthropic Economic Index (May 2026)

Augmentation (AI works with the person)39.2%
Automation (AI does the task)60.8%

Augmentation and automation are shares of conversations with a classified collaboration pattern, excluding unclassified conversations. The individual pattern shares include them. 77.2% of all conversations on these tasks were for work. See the full collaboration breakdown

Live openings

Current listings in Metaintro's jobs index

Browse current software engineer openings in Metaintro's jobs index.

See software engineer jobs by city

Sources & methodology

Every figure on this page comes from the public datasets below. We do not edit the source values; derived figures are explained here.

  1. Exposure is the human-annotator β score from Eloundou et al.: the share of an occupation's O*NET tasks that a large language model could do at least 50% faster at equal quality, counting tasks that need extra software (E2) at half weight. We label β under 0.25 low, 0.25–0.5 moderate, and 0.5 or more high; these bands are ours, not the authors'.
  2. Task labels (E0 not exposed, E1 directly exposed, E2 exposed with complementary software) are the study's aggregated human ratings of each O*NET task statement for the occupation. We show up to five tasks per group.
  3. Observed exposure (Anthropic, March 2026) combines that theoretical feasibility with real Claude usage on the occupation's tasks, weighting automated and work-related use more heavily than augmentative use, then averaging by time spent on each task. Values run from 0 to 1.
  4. Employment, growth, openings, wage, and education are the BLS 2025–35 projections as published; BLS utilization notes are quoted verbatim.
  5. Collaboration shares come from Anthropic Economic Index data for Claude.ai conversations in May 2026, classified to the O*NET tasks they match. "Automation" groups directive and feedback-loop conversations; "augmentation" groups task iteration, learning, and validation. Both buckets are shares of conversations with a classified collaboration pattern, excluding the unclassified "none" pattern; the six individual pattern shares include unclassified conversations. They describe how people use Claude on this occupation's tasks — not what share of workers in the occupation use AI.
  6. BLS occupations are matched to O*NET-SOC codes with the BLS O*NET-to-NEM crosswalk; where a BLS occupation spans several O*NET occupations, we average their values.
  7. Exposure measures what AI could help do, not a forecast of job loss.

  • Eloundou et al., Science 2024

    Eloundou, T., Manning, S., Mishkin, P., & Rock, D. (2024). "GPTs are GPTs: Labor market impact potential of LLMs." Science, 384(6702), 1306–1308. doi:10.1126/science.adj0998. Occupation- and task-level exposure data from the authors' public repository (openai/GPTs-are-GPTs).

    Vintage: Published June 21, 2024; human annotations of O*NET tasks collected 2023. License: Data repository: MIT License. Retrieved 2026-10-09.

  • Anthropic observed exposure (Mar 2026)

    Massenkoff, M., & McCrory, P. (2026). "Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence." Anthropic, March 5, 2026. Occupation-level observed exposure (Anthropic Economic Index, labor_market_impacts/job_exposure.csv).

    Vintage: Published March 5, 2026. License: CC BY (data). Retrieved 2026-10-09.

  • BLS Employment Projections 2025–35

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program. Occupational projections, 2025–35, and worker characteristics, 2025 (Table 1.2); fastest growing occupations (Table 1.3); factors affecting occupational utilization (Table 1.12).

    Vintage: 2025–35 projections, released August 27, 2026. License: Public domain (U.S. federal government work). Retrieved 2026-10-09.

  • Anthropic Economic Index (May 2026)

    Massenkoff, M., Lyubich, E., Sacher, S., Hitzig, Z., Zhang, S., Heller, R., & McCrory, P. (2026). "Anthropic Economic Index report: Cadences." Anthropic, June 26, 2026. Claude.ai usage metrics by occupation, global, May 2026.

    Vintage: Release of June 26, 2026; Claude.ai conversations from May 2026. License: CC BY (data). Retrieved 2026-10-09.

  • O*NET 31.0 Database

    This page includes information from the O*NET 31.0 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA). Used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. Metaintro has modified all or some of this information. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications.

    Vintage: O*NET 31.0, August 2026 release. License: CC BY 4.0. Retrieved 2026-10-09.

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